That Was The Week That Was 13-17 November 2023
If you can keep your head, when all about are losing theirs…
Probably not the nicest person/poet ever born, filled as he was with a tendency to think that the British Empire was a force for good, instead of what it actually was, a colonial power of the most horrid type – apart, obviously, from its spreading of cricket, for which we should all be grateful – oh, wait, did I mention the Cricket World Cup? – but nevertheless, Kipling could write a decent line or two. Just not necessarily in the right order. But his point about keeping your head when all about are losing theirs and blaming it on you is a trait to aspire to. To stay calm under pressure, to focus and to do your job is a great skill. But, but, this week, the week that was, would test Kipling himself. There was chaos everywhere.
First, on Monday and indeed on Tuesday, during the Dubai Airshow, we saw more and more aircraft orders. Thousands of new aircraft are now expected into the sky over the next decade. Mind you, that assumes that we can defeat the Bogey Man that haunted the Airshow all week. Say it softly. Maybe like Voldemort it is better not to say it at all. No, risking everything, I will do it. Supply Chain Issues. There. Voldermort’s real name is Supply Chain Issues. Supply Chain Issues. Do your worse, forces of evil.
There seems to be no end to the new markets, new passengers and new destinations being opened up for aviation. Traditional expectations are being overturned. flydubai, an airline that hitherto has had a fleet of short haul aircraft – B737NGs and B737MAX – has ordered B787s. They are entering the long-haul market. It has to be said that flydubai were not the only airline announcing new aircraft orders at the Dubai Airshow. Look! Here is Emirates doing so; here is Turkish, too. Do not forget Ethiopian. There were plenty more where those came from.
The alternative theory is that by ordering 100 airframes you might, if the mighty Supply Chain Issues can have its attention diverted for long enough, you might, might, get ten aircraft. Order 100, get 10. See how pernicious, how evil, Supply Chain Issues is?
Is there a ceiling to this growth? What is clear that at least in the Middle East, the sky is not the limit, and indeed optimism is not the limit. Those of us in Europe might think infrastructure is the limit. Some of that infrastructure is airports, of course. But the problem with airports is that they are local. So are local residents. The hint is in the name. When the Dutch government tried to limit (and restrict) movements into and out of Schiphol they used a blunt instrument – they demanded a reduction of traffic. Cue squeals of outrage from all the usual players… But, speaking of blunt instruments, JetBlue, one of the carriers most badly affected, because its new, ground-breaking, and most competitive flight offerings, were struck out in their entirety. Or, to put that another way, the slot rules worked perfectly to stop sensible competition from new players upsetting the incumbents. A win for IATA.
This was backed up by an even more comprehensive win on Wednesday. The US government intervened to complain to the Dutch government. Oh yes, we are back to Nationalism 101. Aviation is politics in the sky. It seems that we will never shake off the nationalistic nature of the Chicago Convention. Nothing has changed when it comes to infrastructure and access to it, since 1944.
So it should be no surprise that on Thursday when a safety report on a recent near miss in New York was tabled, the problem was a lack of infrastructure, which in this case means both controllers and up-to-date equipment. There will soon enough be a clamour to train more controllers, thus cementing in the antediluvian equipment, the expense and the way we do things… If only we could arrange for a major disaster, something that might stop flying for many, many months and allow us to catch up… If the old political adage is never let a disaster go to waste, we can take comfort from the fact that as an industry we rise above petty politics.
Leading us, perhaps inevitably, to Friday and the results of yet another failed triologue about the Single European Sky. For those of you that do not understand what a triologue is, can I come and live at your house? A triologue is a meeting of the Commission, the Parliament and the Council to try to find a way to reconcile the various views on draft regulations. In this case, the SES 2+ regulation. But SES2+ is Kryptonite to sensible solutions. Sovereignty!! That is the ever rational, considered view of the Council. Just get it done!! Is the considered view of everyone else. To which the Council, which is to say the various states of Europe say only two words. One of those words is ‘off’.
I would share a link to the AfourE view on this, but it was not linkable. Fair to say, it was almost not printable either, for perfectly good reasons… It is impossible not to share its frustration.