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Five predictions for the aviation industry in 2016
The new year provides an opportunity for reflection and refocus. The various trade associations have been busy publishing their reviews of the past 12 months. These mainly consist of a self-congratulatory list of their achievements and a reminder to their members of the threats facing the industry. After all, they need to justify their membership fees somehow.
Of more interest to us are their plans and resolutions for 2016. Unfortunately, these cards tend to be played much closer to their chests. So, we’ve dusted off the crystal ball to provide five predictions for 2016.
Feel free to include your own predictions in the comments below.
Prediction 1: The ‘Big Three’ US carriers, and their comrades-in arms Lufthansa and Air France/KLM, will continue with their attempts to end airline competition in their domestic markets. Expect further allegations that the Gulf carriers receive unfair commercial advantages, such as having insight into what customers want.
Prediction 2: As a result of the above, the term ‘fair competition’ finally enters the Oxford English Dictionary. Its entry reads: An emotive term used to maintain the status quo by limiting a competitors’ ability to exploit their comparative advantages. See also ‘level playing field’.Prediction 3: Drones will continue to be sexy. And demonstrate to the rest of the industry how much can be achieved when a twenty-first century mind-set is applied to the problem.
Prediction 4: Europe will be no nearer to having a Single European Sky (SES) by the end of the 2016 than it was at the start. Progress is largely dependent on resolving the sovereignty of Gibraltar, no mean feat given that this particular issue has been running for over 300 years. Meanwhile, the airlines, who have the most to gain from the implementation of the SES, have been uncharacteristically mute.
Prediction 5: There will be no decision about the third runway at Heathrow. What is less easy to predict is the excuse that will be used to delay the decision again. The environmental one has already been used. Perhaps Prime Minister David Cameron requires more time to read the 4,470 pages of analysis underlying the Airport Commission’s report?
All sounding a bit familiar? Could we be stuck in some sort of Bill Murray-esque Groundhog Day nightmare where we must revisit the same issues and arguments year after year? The solution for Murray’s character, Phil Conners, was to become a less manipulative person and to focus on self-improvement. There’s a lesson there for many in the aviation industry.
