That Was The Week That Was 28 March-01 April 2022
A Stress-Free Way to Resilience
For a couple of years all we could talk about was building back better. Then, we realised that if we did that, we would make life hard for ourselves, because we, the incumbents, were happy with the way things were before. A better version of that might be harder to live with. A better version would require us to measure up and admit both that things were worse before they were built back better, and that we were part of that. Not a good look.
Better might also mean sustainable, which again will cost money and, currently, is a problem without a solution. Best not to go down that road either.
So now, we talk about ‘resilience’. That sounds good, who does not like a bit of resilience? At the Airlines Four Europe press conference this week, the CEO of easyJet, Johan Lundgren noted that he cannot get aircraft back into service fast enough to meet the demand, pent-up no more. BA cannot get its computers to work under the demand. Dublin airport has had terrible problems with their check-in and security such that passengers missed aircraft. Manchester Airport has had chaos in the security area. Southwest in the USA has had to cancel flights blaming technology issues. Jetblue has had significant problems that foretell of a very bad summer for US travellers as well. And that is only stories from this week, the week that was. One does not have to look very hard to see airlines, airports and ANSPs struggling.
As all this pent-up demand unpents, all parts of the ecosystem are coming under stress. If we were looking at resilience at the moment, we would have to say that things are pretty bad.
The world needs strong airlines. The world needs strong airports. The world needs strong ANSPs. There is a financial sustainability test for airlines before they get their AOC, but is that enough? What we need is regular stress tests of all parts of the ecosystem. We demand them of banks and other vital parts of our lives. No company can be expected to survive a 90% decline in a matter of weeks, as happened at the start of 2020 and the arrival of Covid, but that is no reason not to stress test airlines, airports and ANSPs on a regular basis. They were all happy to take our money (I speak here as a taxpayer) when the chips were down, but I would like to think that was a one-off.
Is anyone prepared to suggest that we will not face other shocks and strains that will impact aviation? Yes, I know, almost impossible to believe, but stay with me for a moment. If, if, there is a resurgence of Covid, some other pandemic or, maybe war in Europe – all very unlikely I accept – do we want to go through another bout of what we have been through? We need to stress test the entire ecosystem regularly, and more importantly, we need to weed out those players that cannot survive such a test. A perpetual merry-go-round of crisis and state aid is not a future.
Running an airline, airport or ANSP is stressful. Let’s make it slightly less so.